Statlig energiprognosverksamhet

I ljuset av 1970-talets energikriser

Abstract

This essay deals with long-term governmental energy forecasting in Sweden, meant to serve as a basis for political decision-making on a national level. The background is that the energy crisis in the 1970’s resulted in erroneous forecasts and that the forecasting-activity as such was being questioned. The forecasting-society had not been equipped well enough to successfully face the challenges that the crisis brought along. This resulted in other ways – and other methods – to approach the future. It also resulted in the value of long-term forecasts being discussed, with the conclusion that what motivates their existence is that they provide a possibility to disregard the momentum of the energy system.

This study shows that the characteristics of the long-term forecasts did not change in a significant way even though being questioned. The characteristics have stayed the same due to requests from both policy-makers and forecasters of consistent results obtained according to a certain scientific tradition. The aim is to obtain reliable results, although such cannot possibly be established in a long-term perspective, as the future always remains full of surprises.